Carney seeks US trade deal after majority win

Carney has earned international praise for urging middle powers to unite against global hegemons and for signing more than 20 trade and security agreements, including with China.

Prime Minister Mark Carney faces his toughest test yet as he turns his attention to trade negotiations with the United States. Fresh from securing a majority government in Canada last week, Carney now confronts the challenge of redefining economic ties with Washington under President Donald Trump.

Canada, the US, and Mexico must decide by July 1 whether to maintain the current North American trade agreement, renegotiate its terms, or hold annual reviews until its expiry in 2036. Carney has signaled his intention to push for a revised deal this year, focusing on tariffs against Canadian steel, aluminum, and autos.

Majority strengthens Carney’s hand

Carney argued before last week’s special elections that he needed a parliamentary majority to deal more effectively with Trump’s trade war. With that majority now secured, analysts say he has the political capital to pursue concessions that might otherwise prove unpopular. Fen Hampson, professor of international affairs at Carleton University, noted that Carney could use his strengthened position to negotiate access to Canada’s protected dairy market or address provincial resistance to certain trade measures.

Diamond Isinger, who worked on Canada–US relations under Justin Trudeau, said Carney’s majority gives him time to ride out uncertainty ahead of the US midterms. “The prime minister now has time to get to a better CUSMA deal without the fear of a snap election,” she explained.

Rising expectations at home

Canadians expect Carney to deliver on his promise to transform the economy. Polling by Nanos Research shows the economy and inflation top the list of public concerns, followed closely by relations with the US. Dan Arnold, a former Trudeau staffer, said Canadians elected Carney to confront Trump directly. “Dealing with Trump and negotiating a trade deal with the US is what Canadians hired Mark Carney to do,” he said.

Carney has earned international praise for urging middle powers to unite against global hegemons and for signing more than 20 trade and security agreements, including with China. Ottawa is also negotiating with India. Yet nearly 70 percent of Canadian exports still go to the US, underscoring the urgency of securing a stable agreement.

Confronting US tariffs

In a video message on Sunday, Carney acknowledged that Canada’s close ties with the US had become “weaknesses we must correct.” He pointed to historical figures such as Chief Tecumseh, who resisted US expansion during the War of 1812, as inspiration for resilience. Carney warned that US tariffs had reached levels not seen since the Great Depression, and vowed to double Canadian exports to other markets over the next decade.

Despite these ambitions, formal talks between Ottawa and Washington have yet to begin. The US trade representative met with officials in Mexico City this week, but Canada and the US have not held official discussions in five months. Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre accused Carney of failing to stand up to American tariffs, saying the prime minister had avoided confronting Trump directly.

Domestic pressures

Beyond trade, Carney faces mounting domestic challenges. Analysts say he must focus on infrastructure projects and the purchase of Canada’s next fleet of fighter jets, while also addressing rising living costs. Drew Fagan, a visiting professor at Yale University, noted that Canada has the second-highest unemployment rate among G7 nations and the highest food inflation. “This is a country that’s fundamentally getting poorer for many people,” Fagan said.

Carney’s majority gives him room to maneuver, but expectations are high. Canadians want relief from inflation and a stronger economic footing, while allies abroad look to him for leadership in trade and security. The coming months will test whether Carney can balance global ambitions with domestic realities and secure a deal with Washington that protects Canada’s interests.