EU exports to US plunge again as tariffs bite

Despite tariffs of 50 percent, EU exports of aluminium and copper products rose 9 and 15 percent respectively in the final quarter of 2025.

European Union exports to the United States fell sharply for a second month in a row, with Eurostat reporting a 26.4 percent drop in February after a 27.8 percent decline in January. The steep fall has cut the EU’s trade surplus with the U.S. by 60 percent, though analysts caution that comparisons may exaggerate the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs because they follow last year’s unusual surge in shipments ahead of the measures.

Distorted comparisons

In early 2025, EU exporters rushed goods to the U.S. before tariffs took effect in March, pushing January and February exports up 16 and 22 percent respectively. Economists argue that the fourth quarter of 2025 offers a clearer picture, when an EU-U.S. deal was in place and the euro had appreciated nearly 9 percent against the dollar. During that period, exports fell 15 percent overall, with iron and steel down nearly 40 percent and chemicals plunging 60 to 80 percent.

Sectoral impact

Car producers benefited from a tariff reduction to 15 percent from 25 percent late last year, but exports still dropped 22 percent compared to the previous year. Chemicals and transport equipment exports from the U.S. to the EU rose during the same period, while the U.S. share of EU exports declined across most member states except France.

Despite tariffs of 50 percent, EU exports of aluminium and copper products rose 9 and 15 percent respectively in the final quarter of 2025. Industry groups explained that U.S. domestic shortages made imports necessary, with aluminium shipments covering technical issues at American plants and copper exports filling gaps in U.S. production capacity.

Ships and boats stood out as a rare success story, with exports more than tripling in both the third and fourth quarters. Finland’s Meyer Turku shipyard, owned by Germany’s Meyer family, said tariffs had not had a decisive impact, pointing to its delivery of the massive “Star of the Seas” cruise ship to Royal Caribbean and a long-term agreement with the operator through 2036.

Economic outlook

Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer noted that EU exports to other destinations rose 6.1 percent, but warned that the damage from tariffs could deepen. “Past episodes of tariff hikes have shown us that it takes trade flows two to three years to fully respond to new tariffs,” he said. He added that new tariffs on patented pharmaceuticals, a major EU export, will weigh heavily, with Commerzbank estimating a 0.3 percent hit to euro area GDP in 2026.

The latest figures highlight the uneven impact of U.S. tariffs across sectors, with some industries finding ways to adapt while others face steep declines. Economists expect the full consequences to unfold gradually, underscoring the long-term challenges for EU exporters navigating a shifting trade landscape.