Iran walks tightrope: supporting Hezbollah without provoking war

As the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalates, Iran is carefully balancing its support for the militant group with a desire to avoid direct conflict that could complicate its efforts to alleviate crippling economic sanctions. Justifying this new-found need to revamp the battered economy and ease international isolation, Iran fears that war would jeopardize the very aspirations it looks forward to in relief from sanctions.

The violence, which began after the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, saw border fire exchanges increase, especially after an Israeli operation left hundreds of Hezbollah fighters dead. However, officials in Iran insist on a power-projection strategy without direct military intervention in the conflict. “Iran is not going to be pulled into war,” said Hamid Gholamzadeh, political expert.

According to Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, Iran would like to go ahead with regional influence without anything that would help the hands of Israel, not anything that could influence the US elections. Strategic restraint has been seen by Iran during the retaliation it gives towards previous Israeli strikes as most of the missiles were caught in the interception.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian let loose last week in New York a stinging denunciation of Israel, accusing the country of ratcheting up tensions and portraying Iran as a responsible player. To this end, he invoked Iran’s decision not to retaliate for an attack killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, stating that “Tehran chose diplomacy over a response to the actions which have continued till now, even in Gaza.”.

While Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi continued to maintain his country’s support for Hezbollah, he warned that Tehran would not sit idly by in the face of Israeli aggression. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also expressed sadness over what had befallen Hezbollah while reaffirming a commitment to support the militant group but with caution.

Analysts consider this to be an obvious balancing act: Iran maintains its support for Hezbollah while the power it needs to provide financially and militarily gets reassessed against the background of the organisation’s relative strengths and weaknesses from Israeli strikes. It’s therefore in Iran’s interest to try to avoid a war that could end up providing sustenance to extend its economic woes and geopolitical isolation.