Italy faces export reality check as US tariffs bite

Italy’s recent rise in exports to the United States has been revealed as largely misleading, with analysts warning that underlying trade performance is weakening under pressure from tariffs and shifting global demand.

While official data showed a 7.2% increase in Italian exports to the US in 2025, economists say the growth was driven mainly by temporary factors, including a surge in pharmaceutical shipments and one-off large orders. When these are excluded, exports actually declined.

Reports from Italy’s statistics agency ISTAT and industry group Confindustria indicate that most manufacturing sectors recorded falling US demand, suggesting the apparent growth masks structural fragility in the economy.

Economists warn that the country’s exposure to the US market—now accounting for more than 10% of total exports—makes it vulnerable to ongoing tariff pressures introduced during the Trump administration. Projections suggest potential losses could exceed €16 billion annually if current tariff policies persist.

Industry experts also note that Italy’s strong pharmaceutical export performance is misleading, as much of the production is controlled by foreign firms that manufacture in Italy for cost efficiency rather than domestic industrial strength.

Business leaders are now urging diversification into emerging markets such as India, Mexico, and South America to reduce dependence on the US market. However, exporters warn that global competition and tariff spillovers are already making alternative markets more challenging.

Despite concerns, overall Italian exports outside the US have shown modest growth, but economists caution that this is not enough to offset risks linked to declining competitiveness in key manufacturing sectors.